Secretary of State Marco Rubio says the United States is shifting from containment to confrontation in the fight against transnational crime groups. After a deadly boat ambush off Ecuador’s coast in early August, Marco Rubio pledged that Washington would support partners with tougher tools—including the ability to strike cartel leadership and logistics when invited by host nations. Days later, he unveiled new terrorist designations for Ecuador’s Los Choneros and Los Lobos, signaling that counter-cartel policy is moving onto a war footing. Los Angeles TimesAP NewsState Department

U.S. Strategy Shift on Drug Cartels — Marco Rubio

In public remarks and State Department releases, Marco Rubio framed the change as a strategic reset: treat the most violent cartels like international terrorist organizations, build legal authorities with partner governments, and pair intelligence-sharing with precision force if required. The new designations expand Washington’s ability to freeze assets, limit travel, prosecute material support, and coordinate joint operations with Ecuador and other willing allies. State Department

A White House directive issued earlier this year created a pathway to designate cartels as Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTOs) or as Specially Designated Global Terrorists (SDGTs)—a legal architecture that Marco Rubio is now using in the field. With FTO status, the U.S. can marshal broader sanctions, intelligence coordination, and, if a partner government requests it, military assistance under defined rules. The White House

What FTO status changes on the ground

An FTO label doesn’t automatically trigger force, but it unlocks tools that were harder to use against “mere” criminal syndicates: anti-terror finance rules, extraterritorial prosecutions for material support, and tighter interagency targeting processes. State’s most recent release on Los Choneros and Los Lobos stresses that these groups terrorize populations to control cocaine routes—behavior that meets the threshold for terrorist designation in U.S. law. State Department

The War Powers and oversight piece

Even under an FTO framework, any U.S. military action remains bound by the War Powers Resolution. Presidents must notify Congress within 48 hours when U.S. forces enter hostilities, and continued operations beyond 60 days require authorization—guardrails that would apply to any strikes Marco Rubio supports abroad. Legal Information InstituteAvalon Project

Why Ecuador is the flashpoint

Ecuador’s security crisis escalated dramatically in 2024, with gangs storming a television studio and the government declaring a state of emergency and, briefly, an “internal armed conflict.” Since then, local groups aligned with Mexico’s Sinaloa and Jalisco organizations have driven violence to historic levels, making Ecuador a key transit hub for global cocaine flows. That’s why Marco Rubio’s visit and the new FTO listings landed there first. Al JazeeraACLEDThe Wall Street Journal

The recent boat attack that killed multiple passengers underscored how coastal smuggling routes have become battlegrounds. For Marco Rubio, the incident became a case study in why partners need help degrading maritime networks that move cocaine and cash. Los Angeles Times

Implications for U.S.–Latin America relations

A harder line will land differently across the region. Some governments grappling with spiraling violence will welcome cooperation; others will bristle at anything that hints at U.S. unilateralism. Mexico’s president has repeatedly rejected proposals for U.S. military intervention against cartels on Mexican soil as an affront to sovereignty—a position unlikely to soften even as Washington tightens cross-border pressure. Marco Rubio’s rhetoric must therefore be paired with meticulous diplomacy. ReutersAP News

What partners will ask for

• Clear consent frameworks. Joint tasking and written invitations for any kinetic operations, to avoid domestic political blowback.

• Tangible capacity-building. Intelligence fusion, vetted units, maritime patrols, and judicial security to turn arrests into convictions.

• Human rights safeguards. Conditioning assistance to ensure partner forces comply with international law—critical for long-term legitimacy.

Domestic reactions to Marco Rubio’s proposal

Supporters argue that cartels already behave like insurgent-terror networks—beheading rivals, coercing communities, and assassinating officials—so the U.S. should use every counterterrorism tool. RAND analysts note that terrorist designations “put new tools in play,” especially on finance and intelligence. That perspective aligns with Marco Rubio’s call to “help our allies blow up these crime groups” when lawful and requested. RAND Corporation

Skeptics warn that military action can outpace strategy. Community safety depends on sustainable governance, not just kinetic wins. They point to twenty-five years of mixed counternarcotics results: Plan Colombia reduced insurgent violence and improved security in many areas, but coca cultivation later surged despite massive U.S. investment; Mérida in Mexico struggled with program monitoring and measurable outcomes. For critics, those lessons counsel humility as Marco Rubio sharpens the blade. Government Accountability Office+3Government Accountability Office+3Government Accountability Office+3

Lessons from previous campaigns

• Plan Colombia: Security improved, yet cocaine production rose in later years—showing that tactical successes can be offset by market adaptation. Government Accountability Office

• Mérida Initiative: GAO flagged gaps in monitoring and fraud risk management, complicating accountability for billions spent. Government Accountability Office+1

• Current coca trends: UNODC’s latest Colombia survey highlights resilient cultivation dynamics that require development and governance—not just raids. UNODC

Legal guardrails for any use of force

Internationally, the U.N. Charter recognizes self-defense against armed attack and permits collective defense when requested by a state. That’s the likely legal pathway if Ecuador invites U.S. assistance under Marco Rubio’s plan. At home, War Powers reporting and congressional oversight remain central—tools lawmakers can use to interrogate objectives, timelines, and exit criteria. United Nations Legal AffairsWar Powers Resolution Reporting Project

A separate but important domestic boundary: the Posse Comitatus Act restricts using federal troops for civilian law enforcement inside the United States, underscoring that Marco Rubio’s posture is about foreign cooperation, not domestic policing by the military. Brennan Center for Justice

Risks and how to mitigate them

1. Civilian harm and backlash
   Precision targeting and on-the-ground intelligence from vetted local units are vital. Publicly releasing after-action assessments can sustain legitimacy when Marco Rubio authorizes high-risk support.

2. Escalation with third countries
   Spillover into contested border zones (e.g., along Venezuela’s frontier) could trigger state-on-state tensions. Clear deconfliction channels and diplomatic signaling are essential.

3. Cartel fragmentation
   Removing top leaders can splinter networks, producing short-term spikes in violence. Coupling operations with financial disruption and local governance support reduces this risk.

4. Criminalization of coerced actors
   FTO labels can complicate asylum and humanitarian cases (e.g., coerced couriers). Guidance from DHS/DOJ will be needed to ensure victims aren’t punished—an area where Marco Rubio’s State Department must coordinate closely with domestic agencies.

What success would look like

• Measurable declines in port and coastal shipments tied to FTO-designated groups.

• Fewer high-profile assassinations and mass attacks in partner countries.

• Expanded joint investigations that seize cartel assets at scale.

• Durable improvements in courts, prisons, and police oversight—so arrests translate into the rule of law, not revolving doors.

What to watch next

• Congressional oversight: War Powers notifications or briefings if U.S. forces are tasked; hearings on authorities and costs. War Powers Resolution Reporting Project

• Regional buy-in: Whether Ecuador, Colombia, and others sign MOUs enabling joint targeting, and whether Mexico maintains its hard sovereignty line. Reuters

• Follow-on designations: Additional FTO/SDGT actions against regional nodes (financiers, arms brokers) as Marco Rubio tightens the net. State Department

Bottom Line

Marco Rubio has moved the United States into a new phase of counter-cartel policy—treating the worst gangs as terrorists, elevating partner-led strikes, and insisting that sovereignty and oversight shape every step. The approach promises sharper tools and faster disruption. Its success, however, will hinge on the disciplines learned from past campaigns: clear legal bases, measurable outcomes, robust diplomacy, and investments that strengthen the communities cartels prey upon. Done right, the strategy could make a lethal business riskier and less profitable. Done hastily, it could repeat old cycles under a new name.

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Further Reading

• U.S. State Department: “Terrorist Designations of Los Choneros and Los Lobos.” State Department

• Associated Press: “U.S. designates two Ecuadorian gangs as foreign terrorist organizations.” AP News

• White House: “Designating Cartels and Other Organizations as FTOs and SDGTs.” The White House

• Los Angeles Times: “4 killed when gunmen attack boat off Ecuador.” Los Angeles Times

• RAND Commentary: “Targeting Cartels as Terrorists Puts New Tools in Play.” RAND Corporation

• GAO: “Colombia: Counternarcotics Assistance Achieved Mixed Results.” Government Accountability Office

• GAO: “State Department Could Improve its Monitoring of Mérida Initiative Projects.” Government Accountability Office

• GAO: “State and USAID Should Strengthen Risk Management for Mérida.” Government Accountability Office

• UNODC: “Monitoring of Territories with Presence of Coca Crops, 2023.” UNODC

• War Powers Reporting (NYU/Brennan Center collaboration). War Powers Resolution Reporting Project

• Reuters: “Mexico rejects calls for U.S. military intervention against cartels.” Reuters

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