Trump and Xi’s TikTok Negotiations: What Lies Ahead

The future of TikTok in the US is again in flux after a week of headline-making statements and carefully worded official readouts. Former President Donald Trump said China’s Xi Jinping had effectively approved a pathway to keep the app operating in America, while Beijing’s messaging was cooler and more guarded. This divergence is exactly why TikTok negotiations matter: the terms will define how data is stored, who controls the algorithm, and whether Congress and regulators believe any arrangement truly severs Chinese government leverage over the platform’s US presence. In short, TikTok negotiations are now the central test of whether Washington and Beijing can land a workable, verifiable tech deal without triggering another spiral of sanctions and retaliations.

Where the talks stand

Multiple outlets reported that Trump publicly claimed Xi had “approved” a TikTok deal following a leaders’ call, characterizing the remaining steps as close to a formality. At the same time, Beijing’s official line avoided declaring victory or endorsing specific terms, instead sticking to principles about market-based, law-abiding business talks. That split-screen—optimistic claims on the US side, caution on the Chinese side—has defined TikTok negotiations all week. Reuters, Politico, and others captured the contrast: energetic talk of an agreement from Trump and a deliberately noncommittal tone from Chinese officials emphasizing fair treatment for Chinese firms and compliance with Chinese law, including export restrictions that could affect algorithm or IP transfers. Reuters+3Reuters+3Reuters+3

What seems to be on the table is a framework in which TikTok’s American assets are moved to US owners, paired with commitments about data localization, code review, and operational transparency. Several reports suggest Oracle remains central to the proposed structure, echoing earlier approaches like Project Texas—TikTok’s attempt to store US data on Oracle Cloud, wall off code access, and enable source-code inspections. Whether this framework truly meets Washington’s expectations is the crux of the TikTok negotiations, especially in light of newer laws that require decisive separation from ByteDance. Reuters+2TikTok+2

Why Chinese messaging is intentionally restrained

Chinese ministries and state media have, so far, avoided confirming any “deal approved” language. Instead, they have reiterated support for corporate-led talks that comply with domestic laws and “fair” treatment in the US. This posture gives Beijing flexibility to deny or revise terms later, and it ensures that any concessions (like technology licensing, export reviews, or limits on corporate control) are framed as consistent with Chinese regulations rather than dictated by Washington. In practice, this means TikTok negotiations must satisfy two audiences: US lawmakers demanding a clean break, and Chinese regulators enforcing export-control rules around recommendation algorithms. That dual constraint explains the calibrated silence from China and the points of friction reporters continue to highlight. Reuters

The legal and political backdrop in Washington

Congress passed a “divest or ban” regime in 2024 that set the expectation TikTok would either separate from ByteDance or face penalties. Courts have since weighed in on different aspects of platform restrictions, and the policy debate has coalesced around control of data and code rather than content moderation alone. Analysts tracking these developments note that earlier, partial fixes—such as Project Texas—were often criticized for leaving ByteDance influence intact. TikTok negotiations now must address those critiques head-on: Who owns the US entity? Who can touch the training data and model weights? Who ships code updates to the app used by 170 million Americans? The clearer and more enforceable the answers, the more likely Congress is to accept the outcome. Encyclopedia Britannica+2Congress.gov+2

What a feasible structure could look like

Ownership and governance

A credible outcome of the TikTok negotiations would put a majority of the US entity under American investors with an independent board, formalized compliance reporting, and clear veto rights for security matters. Reuters’ reporting indicates such contours have been discussed. Whether ByteDance retains any minority economic interest—and on what voting terms—will be a flashpoint. Reuters+1

Data and infrastructure

TikTok’s US user data would need to reside on US-based infrastructure with audited pathways, identity management, and tamper-evident logging. That is the spirit of Project Texas; the question is whether access controls and code-inspection rights are robust enough to satisfy national security agencies. Many lawmakers and experts have said earlier versions did not fully close the loop, which is why the latest TikTok negotiations are under such scrutiny. TikTok+1

Algorithm and software updates

The algorithm is the crown jewel. Even with US data fenced off, a backdoor to model updates could reintroduce risk. A viable deal would spell out who builds and signs updates, how code is reviewed before release, and how emergency patches are handled. The stricter and more technical these provisions are, the more credible the outcome of the TikTok negotiations will be to skeptical lawmakers and regulators.

Why timing and communications matter

Market and geopolitical calendars are colliding. Reports indicate Trump has extended deadlines more than once to keep the door open, while signaling that patience is not infinite. Beijing, for its part, may be aligning any greenlights with its own export-review processes. That creates windows where both sides want to look constructive without locking themselves into terms that could be attacked domestically. This is why the wording of official readouts and off-camera comments feels so carefully hedged—and why TikTok negotiations can swing from “done deal” to “still talking” in a day. Politico+1

What it means for users and creators

For 170 million US users, the most immediate concern is continuity. If TikTok negotiations succeed, the app stays live with behind-the-scenes ownership and compliance changes. Expect new privacy notices, more prominent data-location disclosures, and possibly a “transparency center” narrative similar to prior proposals. If talks fail and the government pushes toward enforcement, users could face app-store restrictions or forced deprecation timelines. For creators and small businesses, the difference is stark: stable reach versus an urgent scramble to rebuild audiences on Instagram Reels, YouTube Shorts, or emerging competitors. That’s why the outcome of the TikTok negotiations will ripple far beyond Washington. Reuters

The biggest open questions

1) Will Congress accept partial divestiture?

Some lawmakers have been explicit: only a clean break counts. If ByteDance retains any operational influence, expect renewed pressure. A legally airtight structure—trusts, independent boards, and enforceable consent decrees—might still struggle to win over hard-liners unless the separation is unmistakable. Politico

2) Can export controls be reconciled with code independence?

China’s export rules can cover recommendation algorithms and AI tech. If those controls restrict code migration or licensing, the US entity may find itself dependent on Chinese permissions. TikTok negotiations therefore must align export approvals with verifiable US control of the code pipeline. Reuters

3) How will verification work in practice?

Any deal will rise or fall on auditability: code provenance, build signing, and red-team access for US authorities or accredited third parties. Earlier ideas around source-code viewing and sandboxed inspection need to be upgraded into binding, monitorable obligations for the new entity. Congress.gov

Scenario planning: three plausible outcomes

The compliance-heavy greenlight

TikTok negotiations produce an American-controlled entity with Oracle (or another provider) operating data and code security controls under government-supervised protocols. The app remains available, creators breathe a sigh of relief, and the new company becomes a test case for AI-era platform governance. Risks remain if enforcement teeth are dull.

The near-miss and renewed litigation

Talks land on an arrangement that critics call cosmetic. Lawsuits follow, deadlines return, and uncertainty drags on. Creators hedge by building followings elsewhere. This is the muddle-through path where TikTok negotiations never fully settle the political argument.

The rupture and ban drive

No acceptable structure emerges. Enforcement actions kick in, app-store de-listings are scheduled, and the US market fragments. Meta, Google, and smaller entrants jockey to absorb short-form video demand. This is the “hard landing” that both governments say they want to avoid, but it remains possible if TikTok negotiations stall.

What to watch next

Official text: Look for concrete term sheets or regulatory filings that move beyond leader-to-leader readouts.
Algorithm control: Any line about export approvals, licensing, or build signing will be decisive.
Congressional reaction: Early statements from key committees will reveal whether TikTok negotiations cleared the political bar.
Deadlines: Extensions suggest progress; hard dates without details can signal impasse. Politico

Bottom line

Trump’s optimistic comments and China’s careful phrasing capture the precarious state of play. There appears to be a framework to keep TikTok operating in the US, but acceptance hinges on provable separation from ByteDance and enforceable controls over data and code. Until specific legal documents surface—and lawmakers give at least a muted nod—the TikTok negotiations remain exactly that: negotiations, not a done deal. For users and creators, vigilance and contingency planning are prudent while the final shape of the agreement comes into focus. Reuters+2Politico+2

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Trump and Xi Discuss Future of Tiktok in US Update